China’s metallurgical coal supply is expected to remain limited in the second quarter of 2022, as coking sector’s inventories deplete and Mongolian coal suppliers face logistical hurdles, industry sources said April 13. Industry analysts see relatively lower seaborne met coal shipments reaching China in Q2 than Q1 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, some Mongolian coal shipments got stuck at Northwest Inner Mongolian land ports, as authorities flagged fluorine content in coal not in compliance with standards, resulting in several containers accumulating at the land ports of Erlian and Ganqimaodu.

This has hindered Mongolian coal trade into China.

As a result, Ganqimaodu’s efforts to step up daily coal haulage into China and raise the number of trucks to 300 remain a distinct possibility for now, according to investment bank Founder CIFCO Futures.

Also, China has adopted strict measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak, a development that would keep operations at the Ceke land port closed. In the near term, daily Mongolian coal haul to China is expected to remain steady at around 200 trucks.

At one point in 2020, the number of trucks hauling Mongolian coal into China reached more than 2000.

Mongolia aims to ship 36.7 million mt of met coal to China in 2022. That will take 2022 volumes 161% higher from the last year level.

China is prioritizing thermal coal demand, leading to capping of domestic met coal output growth in January-February, while limited Mongolian coal haul has squeezed met coal supplies further.

More met coal supplies from Mongolia and Russia are only expected by the third or fourth quarter of this year.

While met coal stocks at coking producers were down, stocks at key Chinese ports were also at lower levels. As of April 8, met coal stocks at six Chinese ports were at 2.02 million mt.