Rio Tinto expects to see a “meaningful” deficit in global copper supply next year after a balanced market this year, with China likely forced to draw down strategic reserves to help meet demand, the company”s top copper division executive has said, according to a Reuters report. Andrew Harding, the mining major”s head of copper, said in an interview that even if predictions of demand from China and India proved to be only remotely true, it would be hard for global supplies to meet demand — and he saw the potential for supply to fall short of expectations. “Looking at copper supply, I”d say the risk is on the down side,” Harding said.

“When prices go up, everyone does their best to produce as much as they can – we all do. But the reality is it”s very hard and there are no obvious signs of any improvement in the supply situation,” he went on. The price of copper has more than doubled over the past 15 months, surging above USD8,000 a ton on April 6. If the price trend of copper continues, it will soon surpass its record high of USD8,940 a ton reached in July 2008.

Although the executive saw a fairly balanced supply-demand for copper in 2010, he said the global copper market would face a supply deficit in 2011 due to demand in China and from recovering developed countries such as the United States. “I can”t actually give you a number of what the deficit will be … but I can say it will be meaningful,” Harding said. “And it will be large enough that the strategic reserves that people are holding will be largely consumed.”

The massive Oyu Tolgoi project is due to come on-stream in 2013, sharply reversing any declines in Rio Tinto copper output in the coming years. The project is forecast to put out 450,000 tons a year on average over the next three decades.