China is seen falling short of 50 million tonnes of metallurgical coal in 2021 amid rising domestic coking output capacity, sources said 15 September.

In 2021, the country is seen retiring 28.92 million tonnes of old coking output capacity, and adding 58.575 million tonnes of new coking production capacity, which translates to a net 29.655 million tonnes increase in coking capacity this year, latest data by China Securities International, or CSI, showed.

China is expected to see a wide deficit for met coal supply in 2021, according to Shenzhen-based brokerage Guotai Junan Securities. This comes at a time when China is vigorously putting effort at dual control of energy consumption and energy intensity, capping production of its high energy consuming domestic steel sector.

The domestic met coal sector is finding it difficult to release back output capacity that are on hold due to environmental controls, while import restrictions play a role in propping up met coal prices.

On the import side, recent COVID-19 cases have often led to the shutdown of Ganqimaodu port in Inner Mongolia, which has restricted the inflow of Mongolian met coal imports. Since August, some coal truck drivers were tested positive for COVID-19 at Ganqimaodu, disrupting truck movements at customs clearance.

Ganqimaodu, a land border port, is the largest channel for importing coal from Mongolia. (S&P Global)