Mongolia already has encountered and will continue to experience significant warming and drying as a result of the climate crisis. Temperatures are rising faster than the global average. This is already being felt by communities across Mongolia, challenging traditional pastoralist–herder lifestyles and catalyzing a strong rural-urban migration trend.

The higher temperatures are likely to increase the frequency and severity of heatwaves and droughts, especially in the south and south-west. Seasons will become more pronounced and the peculiar and uniquely Mongolian phenomenon of the Dzud, which creates drought-like summer conditions followed by extremely cold, harsh winters, will become more frequent and fiercer.

Extreme rainfall will become more intense and more frequent, with more rain falling during very wet days, and this may translate into increased intense rainfall-linked extreme events such as landslides, flash floods and land erosion.

With the majority of the population overwhelmingly dependent on their livestock, climate shocks have led to declining incomes due to a decrease in the weight of the animals as well as in the yields of wool and cashmere.