World Bank Country Manager talks of Mongolia’s economic future - News.MN

World Bank Country Manager talks of Mongolia’s economic future

Old News! Published on: 2010.07.23

World Bank Country Manager talks of Mongolia’s economic future

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Arshad M. Sayed of
the World Bank is leaving Mongolia soon after four years as Country Manager and
Resident Representative.  In what may
well be his last public address here, the Indian-born economist who has worked
closely with the Mongolian Government to help it tide over the economic crisis,
told a selected audience at the Central Bank auditorium on Thursday that it was
certainly possible for Mongolia to turn the present crisis into an opportunity
but nothing can be achieved soon or without taking hard decisions. His lecture
was entitled “Mongolia’s Economic Growth: What’s Next?”

Sayed said Mongolia’s
future would depend on its Government sticking to “a policy of sustainable and
equitable growth based on the future rise in mining revenue”. He warned that
instead of nurturing and encouraging “expectations far ahead of reality”, the
Government and the people should settle for an informed social compact that
would accept “hard decisions in uneasy times”.

Recalling that his
first public address in Ulaanbaatar, in October 2006, was entitled “Mineral
Resources: Blessing or Curse?”, Sayed said four years and a global crisis later
he was still in no position to give a definitive answer, and was not even sure
if there was one. Mongolia’s medium-term growth outlook is very favourable, but
the upcoming mining boom is likely to lead to significant structural shifts.
Withdrawal of the windfall profit tax means the Government will lose revenue
equivalent to 5 per cent of the GDP, and this can be cushioned only with fiscal
consolidation. Mining booms are inevitably followed by busts, and a social
safety net has to be put in place so that the poor are permanently protected.
The banking sector must be reformed and infrastructure needs addressed. 

Sayed read out a poem
he had written as his fareweel thoughts on Mongolia. It endd with the following
words: “
Do not pity, /or worry,/ or shed tears/ or rush in
judgement/ For I am Mongolia/ and I have a date with destiny.”

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