Research and Markets has announced the addition of the “Mongolia Mining Report Q3 2012” report to their offering.
Growth in Mongolia”s mining industry
will be led by a rampant increase in coal, copper and gold production. The bulk
of this growth will occur in 2013 as the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine begins
commercial production. There is an upside risk to our forecast as development
of the massive Tavan Tolgoi mine could start sooner than expected.
Rapid Growth Across All Commodities
We expect the downward trend in Mongolia”s mining sector to come to an abrupt
halt, as the sector undergoes phenomenal growth. The impressive growth rates in
copper and gold production will be driven by the Oyu Tolgoi mine, a joint
venture (JV) between Ivanhoe Mines (66% ownership) and the Mongolian government
(34% ownership). We expect copper production to reach 559kt (“000 tonnes) by
2016, an annual average growth rate of 27.9% from 2010 levels. Decreasing ore
grades at the country”s largest mines have led to a slow decline in Mongolia”s
copper production. As for gold, we expect production to reach 892koz (“000
ounces) by 2016, more than four times 2010 levels.
We expect coal production to more
than quadruple to 107mnt (mn tonnes) by 2016. Growth will be driven by South
Gobi, a subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mines, as the company continues to invest in the
Ovoot Tolgoi mine, currently the country”s largest coal mine. There are
substantial upside risks to our coal outlook as the Tavan Tolgoi mine,
currently owned by the Mongolian government, is due to start output by around
2015, assuming no additional delays are faced.
In July 2011 the government
announced that it had chosen US miner Peabody Energy, China”s Shenhua Energy
and a Russian Railway/Mongolian-led consortium to develop the western bloc at
Tavan Tolgoi.
However, the government took back
the decision afterwards and announced that a final decision will come in early
2012. We do not expect a resolution at least until after the June 2012
parliamentary elections where government officials will less likely put on a
tough stance on miners.
Regulatory Environment And Key
Players Mongolia has made significant progress over the last decade to improve
its business environment. Most importantly, the government rescinded the 68%
windfall tax in early 2011, which had been a significant impediment to foreign
investment into the country. The repeal of the tax led to a wave of investment
including the completion of the Oyu Tolgoi agreement, which will bring billions
of dollars of investment into the country.
Mongolia”s mining sector is
dominated by Ivanhoe Mines and state-owned players such as Erdenes MGL and
Erdenet. Small companies such as Centerra Gold and Erdene Resource Development
also have a stake in the country and have substantial exploration projects. We
expect the mining sector to become more fragmented.
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